The Glancing Queen will no doubt be well fancied for the feature race, but she hasn’t been the soundest jumper over hurdles and is worth opposing on her chase debut. Donald McCain is on a tremendous run of form (35% Strike Rate last 14 days) and there is every reason to believe she could add to the stables recent successes. If Chacun Pour Soi runs and wins at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend – he’s currently a best priced 4/9 so to do – he’ll be shorter for the winning margin bets and odds on for the Champion Chase. If he doesn’t run, he’ll be circa evens on the day assuming he shows up. But, like I say, I think he’s a more robust animal this season, and I’m prepared to back that perception.
They’re away in the Novices’ Chase
Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.
Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31
- The first chase of the week is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a two mile event for novices.
- It’s hard to know exactly what he beat in the G2 but second-placed Gringo d’Aubrelle had previously been a ten length third to Stage Star in the G1 Challow over further.
- There are many ticks in boxes when looking at his overall profile, and it’ll be a big disappointment – mainly in terms of my ante-post bets – if he can’t go close.
- Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal.
- Many horses cannot, and for these more galloping types, field size truncation is not good.
- But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it.
Stablemate Winter Fog has been hit hard by the handicapper after an easy win on stable debut last time but is not without place appeal as a lightly raced type, despite being a nine-year-old. He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance. The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71. The leading jockey in the Ayr Gold Cup over the last 20 renewals is Frankie Dettori who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Jimmy Styles (2009) and Redford (2010). Two jockeys have not had the best of times over the last 20 renewals in the Ayr Gold Cup, Paul Mulrennan has ridden 13 runners to the race without recording any wins whilst David Allan has ridden 12 without a winner.
LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS
That race tempo looks a reasonable fit against today’s likely setup and, what’s more, the horse in question, Tropez Power, won it – over today’s course and distance and in today’s class. He’s a dual winner from four starts on all-weather and, in between those wins, he again showed good acceleration to close from 3 3/4 lengths behind to a length behind at the line in another similarly run race. No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change Bolts Up Daily based on the number of previous wins on that going. This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers. This doesn’t just work on all-weather or on turning tracks, by the way. Both Newmarket courses, for example, offer great advantage to front-runners over most trips up to about nine furlongs.
Irish runners versus UK runners
In that context, Shishkin – who has won all of his completed starts, by 8L, 11L, 11L, a neck, 23L, 13L, and 8.5L – looks very fairly priced at 10/3 to win the Arkle by six lengths or more. His trainer is having a wobble just now but knows better than anyone – even Willie M – how to campaign a precocious two-mile chaser. Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking). Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle.
‘Devastated’ Aidan O’Brien hits out at Melbourne Cup stewards as Jan Brueghel is ruled out
“Annoyingly I never felt I was going to get to the winner, but I can’t fault him. I’m so pleased and the connections are so happy, he’s definitely got a Group One in him. Hayley Turner was proud of the performance of Docklands after the pair combined to fill the runner-up spot. “Nurlan was keen to keep Silvestre on Charyn after his winning start at Doncaster and it was Nurlan’s decision to keep him on right the way through.
Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Tuesday, April 19
The thrice-winner sample size is only 70 (all other samples across the table were in at least multiple hundreds and generally thousands). The percentages in isolation are irrelevant, especially when comparing different going descriptions. This is because less extreme going conditions tend to have bigger field sizes and, therefore, smaller win percentages.
David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday
Back in fourth at Naas was Nara, who really has looked a Boodles project on her two starts on Irish shores so far. The reapplication of the hood looks a smart move, as she was a bit keen pre-race and I don’t expect to see her in the paddock at Cheltenham until the bell for jockeys-up goes, at which point it’ll be straight in and straight out again. There should be more to come once she learns to take her racing better, for all you’d struggle to say she’s been thrown in here.
They’re off in the Champion Chase
Distinction brings solid form to the table as well and looks the most obvious danger on paper. He was only beaten half a length at Catterick and is just 1lb higher so should run his race. Tamaska has won 2 of his last 3 and looks best of the rest but another 2lb rise is going to ask more of him and he only prevailed by a neck last time at Doncaster from an exposed sort. Nat Love has won over this C&D before but was held by the fav last time. I was very pleased that I tipped three on Tuesday, including Lizzie Kelly on Coo Star Sivola at 5-1.
- Compare this to the first five years (2008 to 2012) where the average was 7.4.
- So we have come a long way without having to delve too deeply into the form book.
- O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering late run to topple some well-regarded prospects.
- Against him, there is a clutch of horses separated by only a few pounds on ratings, and it will be the one that adapts best to this somewhat unique test who is the each way bet.
- The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32.
- That said, there are still some strategies that can be deployed for leveraging opportunities in-play, though you would be advised to live stream the race while you’re betting on any in-play event.
- What is worth noting, however, is that 11 of the last 14 winners had raced fewer than ten times over fences and interestingly nine of the last 12 winners had worn some king of headgear (cheekpieces, hood or blinkers).
Presenting Percy goes off as favourite in the 2.10
Although GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has to prove himself over an extra two and a half furlongs, he has a touch of brilliance about him suggesting he can prevail in a Gold Cup. Bar an agonising fall at the final fence when well clear in last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase, he would be heading to Cheltenham looking for a third festival success, and he relishes spring ground. Still only seven years of age, he is also versatile regarding tactics and there is an awful lot to like about his credentials. Hunters Yarn is a horse that jumps off the page in this race. The stable have won this twice in the last 3 years and tend to have a good horse in it.
Breeders’ Cup 2024: Three European raiders form a 68/1 treble on Friday
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
Nicky Henderson on his fifth Champion Chase win
Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins each have nine, and the next best of Jonjo O’Neill, with four. Be wary of horses wearing headgear, especially blinkers or cheekpieces, in Open Grade 1’s at the Festival. The link to this market (at the bottom, in the ‘lengthen the odds’ section) is here. His form this campaign is well clear of any other two mile chaser on either side of the Irish Sea.
Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal. He beat 13 rivals the first day and eleven the second and, well, he just keeps winning. The way to play this, if you’re so inclined, is to back Concertista at 6/5 and Honeysuckle at 5/4, both non-runner no bet. Most likely, you’ll have 6/5 about an odds-on shot and money back on the other; second most likely is that you’ll have 5/4 about a 4/7 shot and a poor value back up ticket. That may not sound exciting right now but it is odds on to look value on the day.
The leading trainer in the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap over the last 13 renewals is Kevin Ryan who has won the race two times with those two winners coming from Bielsa (2019) and Magical Spirit (2021). There is one trainer who has not had the best of times in the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap, Richard Fahey has sent a total of 11 runners to the race without recording any wins. Last year, Put The Kettle On was a 16/1 chance when winning by a length and a half.
Taking 4-1 as an example, a successful £1 bet would yield a return of £5 – the £4 winnings plus the stake. A horse with a string of 1s by their name is likely to be a lot shorter in the betting than one with 0s, for example. Fresh always runs his race but may lack a yard of pace these days. Two Tempting finished ahead of a few of these at Chester and is always underestimated in the betting.
- And that’s a wrap for Day 1 at the Cheltenham Festival 2024.
- So the Irish are sending more runners than they did more than a decade ago, and are winning on average more often.
- In the end, I’m swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well.
- Ignoring the Albert Bartlett, horses priced 16/1+ in novice Grade 1’s are now 3/327 (0.92% SR, -251 at SP) since 2008.
- She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour.
- The best meetings are broadcast on either ITV or ITV4, with racing broadcast every single Saturday afternoon, plus lots of big festival meetings (like the famous Cheltenham Festival in March) which are staged through the week.
Timeform
Her stablemate Nashwa is another with huge ability but is likely to need this run after a break. So that leaves Guineas heroine Elmalka and See The Fire as the main dangers. Despite being novices, most horses running in the Festival novice races have an official rating.
Horse racing tips: Templegate’s 5-2 NAP can bolt up in the big Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket
Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.
It does seem a race where all of the preceding trials have been run on different ground and/or under very different pace scenarios. There will be lots of to and fro in the six weeks from now until the Cheltenham Festival gets underway. A few positions on shorties at fancier prices, for all that the spectre of our picks winning but not by far enough looms, may help to wile the worst of these remaining Covid days. Put The Kettle On jumped poorly under Sean Flanagan when slammed by CPS and Notebook last time but can be expected to improve both for a return to Cheltenham and the presumed return of Aidan Coleman to the saddle. In that light, she’s of minor interest at 14/1 each way and also worth at least a second glance when the ‘without the favourite’ market emerges. But it is hard to see her turning tables with her last day vanquisher.
Despite his relative hurdling experience, IET can look a bit slovenly at a flight for all that he’s generally safe across them. The Ultima is the first handicap of the meeting and is a hyper-competitive race that can throw up some very useful performers. I really don’t like this race from a betting perspective. You have to make excuses for the horses at the top of the market where their price doesn’t allow for such latitude.
As well as showing the top sign up offers from each bookmaker, clicking the bet here button will see your selection added straight to your betslip to make your betting experience as easy as possible. The horses on the racecards are laid out in market order, with the number of the horse at the start of the line. Next to that in brackets is the stall the horse has been drawn in, a crucial bit of information.
Interesting, almost like they found improvement for the atmosphere of the Festival… In his sole chase effort before the last day fall, Haut En Couleurs had easily accounted for Gentleman De Mee and Mt Leinster, the former hacking up twice since, most recently in Grade 3 company at odds of 1/5. It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.
You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Ayr Racecourse section for links to these. Looking over the past renewals, there is only one stallion whose offspring have produced multiple winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap, that stallion Invincible Spirit has produced 2 winners (2019,2016). The course which has produced the most winners of the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap is York, there has been a total number of 4 winners of this race who ran at York last time out.
LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.
At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.
She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.
This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
All of the last 14 winners had raced 2-5 times over fences. Willie has the outsider Mercurey, too, this one running in the Mr Blobby / Susannah Ricci colours. He’s stepping up half a mile in trip and, by Muhtathir, that doesn’t look the most obvious manoeuvre (that’s easy for me to spell!).
Asfoora joins Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007), Scenic Blast (2009) and Nature Strip (2022) on the Australian roll of honour in what was formerly the King’s Stand Stakes. The five-year-old had made it to the track just twice since his fast-finishing fourth in the St James’s Palace Stakes two years ago, but he served notice there may still be a big prize on his horizon with a pleasing performance. “The Wolferton was the alternative but it’s on the round course and you need a lot more racing luck on there. As Docklands carries the colours of Australian-based owners OTI Racing, he is set for a trip to the southern hemisphere later in the year. “That was a really good run, it’s just a shame to miss out. He deserved it and we really thought he had a chance,” said Turner.
The Mullins third string is an unbeaten-in-one ‘could be anything’ type called Bring On The Night. A progressive three-year-old when trained in France by Andre Fabre, it was nigh on two years thereafter that he made his timber debut at Naas. Impressive he was, too, coming right away from a large field of maidens in spite of bungling the final flight. It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then. Willie was quite bullish about his ability in recent stable tour chat but I thought he might have gone Ballymore rather than here.
